Financing Rural WSS in Tajikistan/applying the feasible

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Financing Rural WSS in Tajikistan (Country background / Socio-Economic context / Water-Policy context / The State of the Water-Sector / The FEASIBLE-model / Applying the FEASIBLE-model / Baseline Scenarios / Bibliography) | Kyrgyzstan WSS Financing NPD (First Steering Group Report / ...)
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Parallel to the case in the Kyrgyz Republic where OECD applied the Feasible Model to estimate a set of scenarios of financing urban and rural water supply and sanitation, the goal was also to check if the application of the model could be feasible for the Tajik context. The Feasible Model requires a huge amount of sometimes fairly detailed data as a basic prerequisite. The test run did not involve any data collection in the field, but has been conducted via desktop research.

Due to reliance on information and data from a desktop research, the run of the different scenarios has been strongly contingent on assumptions. Most data fed into the model comes from expert studies, reports and own calculations based on assumptions and estimates. As a consequence the future modeling with Feasible requires the collection of primary or secondary data via field surveys and close collaboration with government institutions as well water utilities. Only through local collection more sound outcomes can be achieved, which would then indicate the state of the economic feasibility of certain water policies compared to the business as usual case.

Even though it was possible to run the Model with different scenarios and ending up with concrete outcomes, their results cannot be interpreted as being conclusive. The application of Feasible with more concrete data could lead to totally different results and therefore it has been regarded as straightforward to refrain from a detailed interpretation of the scenario outcomes.

Moreover the identification of crucial parameter stands in the foreground in order to identify the data that should be researched with priority when conducting a local field survey as preparation to further water policy advances. Regarding their content the calculated scenarios follow the OECD case in Kyrgyzstan. This means scenarios are developed as follows:

  • One scenario assumes no policy changes at all including no increase in tariff rate or collection rate.
  • In an alternative scenario it is assumed that the payments from households for WSS will gradually increase to the maximum level of affordability (assumed at 2.5% of household income on average – with maximum of 5% for any of the 10 income groups) during the planning period of 20 years and that the maximum level of affordability will reflect HH income growth in line with GDP.
  • Another scenario takes up the increase in tariff contributions shown in the alternative scenario but also assumes that tariff collection rates are assumed to grow to 85% in urban areas and 60% in rural areas after five years.

In addition several general assumptions regarding economic parameters have been taken from the OECD baseline scenario. These include:

  • All simulations are made in base year prices. No projections of inflation are made. It is quite impossible to forecast domestic inflation over the whole 20 year scenario period
  • The current state of international currency markets prohibits any sensible prediction of the movements of a single currency, especially over a 20-year period. Therefore the no appreciation or depreciation against the EURO or other major currencies is considered in the model.
  • Similar to the Kyrgyz case applied by OECD, real household income (HH) is assumed to grow at a conservative 3% p.a. Real GDP growth is assumed to be 5% pa.
  • Due to a lack of genuine data, price levels on land, fuel, power as well as percentages of consumables, equipment, buildings/construction materials and other costs have to be assumed to be to reflect the Kyrgyz levels.


As the model of the Tajikistan case is mostly assumption-based, further field research should dedicate itself on the investigation of the following areas:

  • Regional GDP for Tajik oblasts
  • detailed data on municipalities and villages in Tajikistan - total numbers of villages, number of municipalities/village in each region
  • Assessment of municipality/village categories reflecting the Tajik context and census data
  • realistic estimations of average number of inhabitants in each municipal or village category, e.g. municipalities with 10-20 thousand inhabitants, the population size should be the average number of inhabitants of these municipalities
  • An update of percentage of people in a certain region connected to the water supply system adjusted for systems available: standpost, yard tap, house connection - data from Vodokanals could be used
  • The same should be done with respect to the percentage served with different technology: Non-improved supply/Rainwater/Dug well and HP/Protected spring and tap/Borehole and HP/Piped system, protected spring, gravity pipe, reservoir/Piped system, boreholes, pumps/Piped system, boreholes, pumps, reservoir/Piped system, surface water, gravity, reservoir/Piped system, surface water, pumps, reservoir
  • Investigate the current levels of water treatment in regions from Vodokanals or the responsible ministery: groundwater treatment, surface water treatment, spring water treatment
  • Percentage of people in a region connected to the wastewater system adjusted for different sytems: Non-improved Sanitation, Simple Pit Latrine, Improved Latrine, Pour Flush Latrine, On site septic tank, Sewered interceptor tanks +/- treatment, Simplified sewerage +/- treatment, Conventional sewerage +/- treatment
  • Percentage of treatment level according to treatment technology
  • Detailed data on billed amount and collection rate in each region for both water supply and wastewater
  • Update on environmental capital expenditure as well as expenditure for WS and WW (capital and recurrent)
  • Update on latest loans, grants etc. in the realm of water supply and sanitation.

Contents

References

See also

External Resources

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